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Where is the "hiatus" in global surface temperatures?

I can`t find the "hiatus" in atmospheric warming. Can you find it?

I'll even give you a head start:

Foster, G. and S. Rahmstorf, 2011: Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, no. 044022, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Fyfe, J.C., N.P. Gillett, F.W. Zwiers, 2013: Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years. Nature Climate Change, 3, pp. 767–769, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1972.

Guemas, V., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, I. Andreu-Burillo, et al., 2013: Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade. Nature Climate Change, 3, no. 7, pp. 649-653, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1863.

Hunt, B.G., 2011: The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend. Climate dynamics, 36, no. 3-4, pp. 509-521, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0799-x.

Kaufmann, R.K., H. Kauppi, M.L. Mann, et al., 2011: Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008. PNAS, 108, no. 29, pp. 11790-11793, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1102467108.

Kosaka, Y., S.-P. Xie, 2013: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501, no. 7467, pp. 403-, doi: 10.1038/nature12534.

Lean, J.L., D.H. Rind, 2009: How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?

Geophysical Research Letters, 36, no. 15, doi: 10.1029/2009GL038932.

Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, J.T. Fasullo, et al., 2011: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, 1, no. 7, pp. 360-364, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1229.

Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, J.M. Arblaster, et al., 2013: Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, no. 18, pp. 7298-7310, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1.

Meehl, G.A., H. Teng, 2012: Case studies for initialized decadal hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, art. no. L22705, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053423.

Santer, B.D. , C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P.J. Gleckler, T.M.L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N.P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, P.A. Stott, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, F.J. Wentz, 2011: Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 116, no. D22, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016263.

Susan Solomon, Karen H. Rosenlof, Robert W. Portmann, John S. Daniel, Sean M. Davis, Todd J. Sanford, Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2010: Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming. Science, 327, no. 5970, pp. 1219-1223, doi: 10.1126/science.1182488.

Toth, L.T., R.B. Aronson, S.V. Vollmer, et al., 2012: ENSO Drove 2500-Year Collapse of Eastern Pacific Coral Reefs. Science, 337, no. 6090, pp. 81-84, doi: 10.1126/science.1221168.

Trenberth, K.E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, no. 1, pp. 19–27, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001.

Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, et al., 2013: Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, no. 12, pp. 3175-3179, doi: 10.1002/grl.50541.

5 Answers

  • ?
    Lv 7
    8 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    Thomas Fuller made a bet with uberalarmist Joe Romm that global temperatures in the 2010s will be about the same as the 2000s, the bet line is .15C. .15C per decade is the low end of IPCC predictions.

    Things starts out well for Joe Romm, as 2000 was a 'cold' year of just .40 above average while 2010 was .67. Then the nonexistent hiatus took effect, and 2011 was .03 warmer and 2012 was .03 cooler than 2001 and 2002. So far 2013 is just a tiny bit cooler than 2003.

    But no worries, if you believe alarmists, global warming is just around the corner, and Romm will still win his bet.

  • Anonymous
    8 years ago

    According to Climate Realist's graph from "Wood for Trees" it doesn't even show the almost 1C spike in 1997-98 that had many scientists scratching their heads until they figured out it had to do with the PDO and AMO both being in a positive phase. I'm thinking that the "hiatus" you speak of is in the minds of warmunism advocates.

  • Anonymous
    8 years ago

    Eureka! I found it. A very slight drop in the slope in the trend line since 1997.

    Is Roy Spencer going to be mad when I collect his Nobel Prize?


    <According to Climate Realist's graph from "Wood for Trees" it doesn't even show the almost 1C spike in 1997-98>

    That's because the rise was only 0.6°C as may be seen on the graph. That "very important global temperature event" wasn't omitted; it didn't happen.

  • Ian
    Lv 5
    8 years ago

    as Climate Realist can tell you, there is NO pause.

    The pause, which is not occurring, has been proven to be caused by a myriad of things that the models took into consideration but did not account for.

    Why can't deniers just accept that there is no pause and we can prove why there is?

  • 8 years ago


    Don't be too hard on them. They all thought another Chapter was going to look at it.

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