Do you believe there will be a Blue wave or Red wave in the Congressional elections this fall?
Does it depend on the impeachment trial results?
- Anonymous8 months ago
I think between the two, a red wave is more likely. Democrats won the House in 2018 in moderate areas. If I'm not mistaken, around thirty moderate Democrats won in districts that voted for and seems to support Trump. However, most of these Democrats went along with impeachment and haven't really kept their campaign promises to put aside partisan politics and work with this president to get actual things done that voters care about. That may hurt them in 2020. Unlike them, Trump has results and has kept many of his campaign promises.
- Anonymous8 months ago
More likely the former than the latter. Republicans are unlikely to see a "red wave" in the House.
The reason is that turnout for Democrats usually goes up in presidential election years. If you'll notice, Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election in the last thirty years except for 2004. This has a knock on effect where Democratic candidates in presidential years tend to do well. Except for 2004, and oddly 1992, Democrats have gained seats in the House in every presidential election year since the 1980s. And we saw Democrats win a landslide victory in 2018, when turnout was extremely high, signalling that voters, at least at that point, leaned mostly Democratic. There doesn't seem to have been anything which would have swayed these people back towards voting Republican. This Democratic tendency is probably exacerbated by a slew of retirements among Republican Congressmen, similar to, although I believe smaller than, the retirements which preceded their landslide loss in 2018. This is significant because incumbents usually have an advantage as opposed to challengers from the same party, particularly in a Presidential race where they may have to distinguish themselves from an unpopular President. What this means is that Republicans are likely to lose seats next year, although it's still to be seen if they lose enough for it to count as a "blue wave". If Republicans do win their gains will likely be relatively small. In 2004, when they actually gained seats in a presidential election year, they gained only 3. That doesn't seem to qualify as a "wave"
- Weasel McWeaselLv 78 months ago
I want to believe real Americans will step up and take their country back........
but the fact is......most seats are either solidly blue or solidly red.........and it's just not as simple as that.
I don't expect red states to suddenly embrace democrats.
I'd like to think cons will pay a price for this sham trial......but there maybe not be much movement at all. But perhaps,. just enough, to take back the Senate.
- Tmess2Lv 78 months ago
Not sure there will be a wave in the Congressional elections. The Democrats picked up most of the available swing seats in 2018. There are a handful more suburban seats were Republicans are at risk due to their declining performance with college educated voters, but not many.
Using the Cook Partisan Vote Index (in which 0 represents a district that exactly mirrors the presidential vote in the last two elections) and the fact that the actual popular vote in the last two elections was actually favored the Democrats by about 2-3 percent, any seat rated R+5 to D+2 can fairly be considered a swing seat. The Republicans have around 18 seats that are considered swing (but they are mostly in the R+4 or R+5 category which is why these members survived 2018). The Democrats have around 50 seats that could be considered swing (and another two or three that they won in solid Republican districts when Republican primary voters thought that they could nominate a very extreme candidate and still when the general that would flip back if the Republicans nominated a more traditional Republican candidate). Given these numbers, the Republicans have a better playing field to get a Republican wave. However, the current polling of the general congressional ballot (this far out only somewhat useful) shows that there has not been any significant change in preferences since 2018.
As such, barring something changing between now and November (and something will change, we just don't know which side the changes will favor), the Congressional elections are likely to be status quo in the House.
On the Senate side, in 2016, the same party won both the presidential election and the Senate election in states that had both. If you assume the same for 2020, if states vote the same as in 2016, there would be no change (with 4 seats changing parties) in the total number of seats for both parties. However, there are some states that were close in 2016 that could flip and some states that the Republicans should win in which there is a real chance that they will not nominate their best candidate (leaving the possibility of a Democrat win). As things stand today, the Senate could be anything from the Republicans gaining a net of two seats to the Democrats gaining a net of 6. The Democrats gaining a net of 6 would qualify as a wave. The Republicans gaining a net of two would not necessarily qualify as a wave but would be further evidence that ticket splitting is not a significant factor in elections.
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- Warren TLv 78 months ago
NOBODY KNOWS THAT INCLUDING THE MEDIA
- Jeff DLv 78 months ago
I suspect Trump and the Republicans will do well in the fall. The impeachment will hurt the Democrats somewhat, but I don't think it will be a major factor.
- BlondeLv 78 months ago
The republicans, thus far, have yet to make their case. It’s premature to judge anything until both sides are finished.
- 8 months ago
Well, last time the Democrats won the Presidency in 2008 the Republicans came back and took the House and Senate in 2010 only to lose in 2012. If history holds up then Trump won in 2016, the Democrats won in 2018 and Trump will win in 2020
- FuhrLv 68 months ago
There's a lot of time between now and Novemmer. Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
- mustagmeLv 78 months ago
Red wave. The Democrats are down to their last election as a national party. They are destined to be a permanent minority party representing coastal elites, New York, and California.