Koshka
Lv 5
Koshka asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 2 months ago

A question for global warming regulars?

Have you ever read the article " Influence of choice of time period on global surface temperature trend estimates "

It's available online (PDF) 

I just asked this question, it was ghosted from this section but is still in my questions on my profile. The troll gave his dumb non-answers as usual...

Update:

At least 3 intelligent answers so far.

Skeptic, David and Dirac.

Tornado Allie, you gave the same answer in my ghosted question... how did you find it? If you googled it, then why don't you google the paper I gave the title to. I'll give you the benefit of doubt, so far that you're not a sock of the troll.

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  • Dirac
    Lv 4
    2 months ago
    Favorite Answer

    That is an excellent paper and worth reading by everyone in here. I believe I referred to it a few times in my pegminer days. There was a well-known denier (might have been Christopher Monckton) who used to make plots that said something like "X years Y months with no warming!!"  He would do that by carefully choosing his start and end dates. What that paper did was look at EVERY time interval possible and calculate the trend over that interval. It showed that once you got past a certain length of time in the record, the only trends were warming.  Of course the warming has been so strong over the last decade that we never see the "no warming" plots anymore, and anyone that claims the planet is not warming is just seen as a fool. Most deniers that don't want to look silly have fallen back from "The warming is fake!" or "It's cooling,not warming", to positions like JimZ's, that it's warming, but it's a good thing.  

    They were wrong about the science before and they're wrong about it still.

  • 2 months ago

    No, I haven't read that one yet.

  • 2 months ago

    I have.  Though it was several years ago.

    I apply the concepts involved regularly in my job, as will anyone that does statistical analysis of trends.

    In any design of a testing regimen, the idea of "trumpet curves," where the goal is to determine how many samples are needed of a trend with inherent variation is necessary for a calculated average to be statistically meaningful.  

    In my case, it's about measuring the flow rate and volume accuracy of certain medical devices.

  • David
    Lv 6
    2 months ago

    Reminds me a bit of the escalator gif from Skeptical Science. Skepticalscience.com/escalator

    By the way I find the ghosting glitch can usually be resolved by moving your question to a different category, then back to the category it was intended for. 

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